Lloydminster 
  Retail Mall Vacancy Survey 
 January 2008 

1.0   Economic Background

The City of Lloydminster is located on the Yellowhead Highway approximately 250 km east of Edmonton and 275 km west of Saskatoon, straddling the border (4th Meridian) between Alberta and Saskatchewan. The estimated population, according to the Lloydminster Economic Development office was estimated at 24,028 persons (calculated by the 2006 Stats Canada census and estimated to increase 2.5% per year).  The current population (December 31, 2007) is estimated at approximately 26,000 persons.

Lloydminster is surrounded by some of the richest farmland in western Canada. The district enjoys a buoyant economy, mixed agricultural and oil industry base. The city centres a 2,500-square-mile oil field, said to be the largest concentration of heavy crude in North America. Oil activities, particularly servicing, refining, pipelining and upgrading, have been a predominant Lloydminster activity for many years.

One measure of economic activity in a city is the level of construction. Building permits for 2007 (obtained from the City of Lloydminster Engineering/Planning Dept.) were 114.5 million compared with 105 million in 2006 and 122 million in 2005.  The number of units have increased significantly in 2007 to 795 units compared to 555 units in 2006 and costs have again increased from the previous year.

The MLS residential sales statistics for the city show that the Saskatchewan side had 278 sales (41%)  and the Alberta side had a total of 400 (59%).  This includes only urban residential properties within the City of Lloydminster. The average house price on the Alberta side was $272,885 up from $214,944 in 2006 and the average house price on the Saskatchewan side was $210,998 up from $169,630 in 2006.  This is an  approximate 27% increase from the previous year for Alberta and 24.4% increase for Saskatchewan  The average house price is the total sale price of all residential sales divided by the number of sales.  The average house price on the Alberta side is approximately 29% higher than the Saskatchewan side. Notably, out of the 678 residential sales in Lloydminster, 107 or 16% were condominium ownerships.

The following table summarizes the MLS statistics and reflects the past 7 years:
 

Table #1  
MLS RESIDENTIAL STATS 
As Of December 31, 2007
Province ALBERTA    SASKATCHEWAN   
Year # of Sales  
Gross Sales
(Millions)
  
Avg. Price/home
(Alberta)
  
# of Sales  
Gross Sales
(Millions)
Avg. Price/home
(Sask.)
 
2000     $111,997     $85,156
2001 370 $49.67 $134,253 219 $21.06 $96,154
2002 368 $47.58 $129,293 236 $22.13 $93,758
2003 368 $58.07 $152,413 181 $20.56 $113,597
2004 495 $85.25 $172,224 262 $29.83 $113,874
2005*see note 347 $67.20 $193,660 181 $27.52 $153,028
2006 378 $79.10 $214,944 176 $28.50 $169,630
2007 400 $106.15 $272,885 278 $56.13 $210,998
% Increase from
2006 to 2007
    27.0%     24.4%
 

*NOTE: Commencing in 2005, the statistics are only the City of Lloydminster.  Previous years included Lloydminster and the surrounding rural towns and acreages.

 

According to CMHC, apartment vacancy rates in 2007 decreased to 0% compared to 0.2% in 2006 and 0.7% in 2005.  There are no vacant apartments in the entire city. The nil vacancy rate again resulted in rental rate increases in 2007. The average apartment rent is up approximately 6% from October 2006 compared to a 10% increase in 2005. The 2007 apartment survey consisted of 1,720 suites, of which nearly one third are located on the Saskatchewan side of the border. The following is a chart for Lloydminster showing the average apartment rental rates from 2002 to 2007:
 

Table #2   
CMHC STATS 
Lloydminster - October 2007
Average Apartment Rent 2002   2003   2004   2005

2006

2007
Bachelor $408 $431 $443 $406 $467 $515
1 Bedroom $479 $503 $521 $540 $581 $608
2 Bedroom $575 $600 $625 $634 $710 $755
3 Bedroom and + $639 $672 $700 $711 $781 $823
Average Rent $540 $565 $588 $601 $662 $704
 

Local industries include the Heavy Oil Bi-Provincial Upgrader, the largest pre-manufactured home factory in western Canada (Nelson Homes), plus several other smaller secondary manufacturing and distributing companies, many of which are related to the oil industry.

Husky Oil  is the largest employer  in Lloydminster. Since the construction of the Bi-Provincial Upgrader in 1992,  Husky has built the 215 megawatt Meridian Co-generation Plant which reached full operating capacity in 1999.  Over the past year, work has been completed on western Canada's largest ethanol plant  which employs 25-30 full time permanent positions.  This plant supports the local economy by purchasing goods and services from local suppliers including approximately 350,000 tonnes of feedstock from local producers, produces approximately 130 million litres of fuel grade ethanol per year and produces approximately 134,000 tonnes of distillers dried grain with solubles (DDGS) per year.   Husky Oil has also announced a future expansion of the upgrader, however the timing of this expansion has not yet been determined.

Lloydminster has numerous parks and playgrounds, two golf courses and other leisure facilities, including an outdoor swimming pool and an indoor swimming pool and water slide facility.  Common Wealth Centre is a fairly new $25 million dollar multi-plex sports complex on the south side of the city .  Built in 2005, this multi-use recreational complex contains twin ice arenas, twin indoor fieldhouses, a fitness wellness center, a physiotherapy/sports medicine center, upper level running track, exterior oval speed skating rink, child care space, retail sports shop, concession kiosk, lounge/kitchen, etc. and services Lloydminster and the surrounding communities.   West Harvest Express is a newer hotel with direct access to the multi-plex via a second floor walkway, and was built to service the expected clientelle of Common Wealth Centre.

There is a full range of educational facilities, including the multi-million dollar Lakeland College Campus developed in the southwest sector of the city. This campus provides community college courses up to university degree courses in several disciplines. The Vic Juba Community Theatre is also a 555 seat arts and entertainment theatre on the Lakeland College Campus. 

As discussed above, the city has a diversified economic base which is expected to maintain and improve for the foreseeable future.

2.0   Study Area and Inventory 

The study area includes the entire city of Lloydminster. The majority of the strip retail is concentrated on 44th Street (Trans Canada Yellowhead Highway), which runs the entire width of the city. There is a secondary Highway commercial strip which is 50th Avenue, the Meridian, also known as Provincial Highway No.17. Excluded from this study is the retail component of the downtown core. The malls are classified as either an enclosed retail mall or strip development which includes the Cornerstone Power Center & "Big Box" retail. Excluded from the survey were any one-storey free-standing buildings on pads unless they were part of a mini power center, "Big Box" retail or in the Cornerstone Power Center. Home Depot is a new anchor added to the survey this year.

The total inventory is approximately 1,163,041 sq. ft., including one enclosed mall located in the centre of the city on the Trans Canada Yellowhead Highway on the Alberta side of the border. Anchors in this enclosed mall include Sears, Zellers and Safeway. CRU's (Commercial Rental Units) for mini power centers added this year into the strip category includes 17,300 sq. ft. which encompasses 2 new buildings on 50th Avenue. 

3.0   Retail Space Overview  

The Lloydminster retail market presently has 205,802 (17.7%) sq. ft. in the enclosed mall and 841,797 (72.4%) sq. ft. in strip retail on the Alberta side of the city and 115,442 (9.9%) sq .ft. on the Saskatchewan side. As a result, the addition of any retail development 10,000 sq. ft. or over can have a significant impact on the vacancy in that category over the short term. Establishing absorption figures over a period of time is one of the objectives of the study and will come into play in the future as historical information is available.

The information gathered and summarized in the following table is effective as of December 31, 2007.
 

Table #3  
RETAIL MALL SURVEY 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Effective December 31, 2007, Conducted January 8, 2008
Type Total Area  
(Sq.Ft.)
Anchor  
(Sq.Ft.)
CRU's  
(Sq.Ft.)
Total  
Vacant  
(Sq.Ft.)
Vac.
2007
Vac.
200
6
Vac.
2005
Vac.
2004
Vac.
2003
Vac.
2002
Vac.
2001
Vac.
2000
Enclosed 205,802 140,451 65,351 2,150 1.04% 1.04% 0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.7%
Strip 841,797 406,235 435,562 2,050 0.24% 0.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 2.5% 6.3%
Total Alberta 1,047,599 546,686 500,913 4,200 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 2.2% 1.8% 4.5%
Total Sask. 115,442 115,442 17,300 15% 4.8% 5.9% 8.1% 3.6% 8.0% 28.6% 33.5%
Total City 1,163,041 546,686 616,355 21,500 1.85% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 2.7% 4.1% 7.0%
 

4.0    Vacancy 

Removed from the survey this year was a 4,167 sq. ft. CRU (which consisted of an end bay that had been demolished) and was located in the 7-11 Mall.

The overall city-wide mall vacancy is 1.85% with 0.4% on the Alberta side and 15% on the Saskatchewan side. This 15% is due to only 2 retail spaces, (one just finished being built and the other still under construction) totaling 17,300 sq. ft.  As noted earlier, the the addition of any retail development 10,000 sq. ft. or over can have a significant impact on the vacancy , as is the case here.  The Alberta side of the city has 90% of all the mall retail space. The Alberta vacancy decreased slightly from the previous year from 0.6% in 2006  to 0.4% in 2007.

As of December 31, 2007,  the vacancy remained unchanged in the enclosed mall and decreased 0.26% in the strip category.

The overall city vacancy rate has increased slightly from the previous year from 1.0% to 1.85% .

5.0   New Construction 

Over the last decade most of the new retail construction in Lloydminster has been concentrated on the Alberta side of the border. Commercial vacant land parcels fronting onto 50th Avenue (Highway No. 17 S.) on the Saskatchewan side of the border are actually being or have already been developed.  Added to the survey this year were two new buildings  located on 50th Avenue on the Saskatchewan side of the border.  Square footage of one of the buildings is 16,000 sq. ft. and the other, located in Star Plaza, is 7,300 sq. ft. 

Also added to the survey this year  was Home Depot, a new 85,178 sq. ft. "Big Box" retailer, which was added into the Anchor area.

Lloydminster is strategically located between Saskatoon and Edmonton's trade markets allowing for Lloydminster to have a growing trade area of well over 100,000 people.  The retail sector has definitely had a positive economic impact on the community.

All indications point to a very strong demand for retail space on the Alberta side of the city and a limited demand on the Saskatchewan side of the city.

6.0   Rental Rates 

Discussion with leasing agents indicate that  there is stronger interest on the Alberta side. Historically, the Saskatchewan side leases up more slowly, at a slightly lower rate than comparable space on the Alberta side.

Rental rates for the strip malls and mini power centers on the Alberta side are in the $8.00/sq. ft. triple net to $20.00/sq. ft. triple net range and appear to be in line with retail rates in other major urban centers in Alberta.  The rental rates on the Saskatchewan side appear to be in the $8.00/sq. ft. triple net to $12.00/sq. ft. triple net range, which is in line with rental rates for cities of similar size.

Leasing inducements which include rent free periods and/or tenant improvements appear to be minimal in the Lloydminster market. This is due primarily to the limited strip retail available and the pent-up demand for any new construction. The majority of new construction has been on a pre-leased basis.

7.0   Acknowledgements 

Our sincere appreciation is extended to the Lloydminster Economic Development Authority (LEDA) and the Engineering & Planning Department, both of the City of Lloydminster.  Many thanks to Musgrave Developments and Musgrave Agencies for their input regarding the "mini" Power Centers.  Also, thanks to Century 21 for their valuable input regarding leased space. Various other real estate agents and property managers also provided valuable assistance.  

8.0   Qualifications 

Readers of this Study are welcome to use the information as deemed appropriate, providing McInnes & Company Appraisals Ltd. and Brunsdon, Junor, Johnson Appraisals are quoted as the reference sources. The information contained herein is believed but not warranted to be accurate. Readers are cautioned to make their own investigation before making any financial decisions.

McInnes & Company Appraisals Ltd. is a real estate appraisal firm with many years experience, providing a wide range of appraisal services, with the primary market being the northwest portion of the Province of Saskatchewan and the northeast portion of the Province of Alberta. 

Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals who co-author this document is a real estate appraisal firm providing a wide range of appraisal and consulting services, with the primary market being the north central half of the Province of Saskatchewan. 

 

McInnes & Company Appraisals Ltd.
Ste. 201, 5303-50 Avenue
Lloydminster, SK  S9V 0P9
Phone: 306-825-3500 Fax: 306-825-3507
Website: www.mcinnesappraisals.com
email us at: office@mcinnesappraisals.com.



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